Research on Network Public Opinion Prediction Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

In response to the problems of rapid dissemination of online public opinion, significant social impact, and susceptibility to major emergencies, this article conducts research on the pre calculation method of online public opinion. Firstly, based on the process of online public opinion dissemination, clarify the lifecycle process and characteristics of online public opinion; Secondly, starting from the influence weight of public opinion dissemination, the core variables of online public opinion information dissemination were established, and on this basis, a network public opinion evolution model was constructed; Furthermore, considering the high volatility of online public opinion during the diffusion period, a network public opinion prediction method based on exponential smoothing is proposed; Finally, the effectiveness of the prediction method was verified through case data analysis.