Will electric vehicle battery reconditioning succeed? – A flexible simulation approach considering stakeholders’ interests

The increasing adoption of electric vehicles will generate substantial quantities of end-of-life batteries, necessitating effective management strategies beyond recycling. Reconditioning these batteries for reuse in vehicles or alternative applications presents a promising yet underexplored pathway. This study introduces a flexible simulation model combining discrete event and agent-based elements to estimate the long-term demand and supply of reconditioned electric vehicle batteries up to 2050. The model considers economic and regulatory factors, integrating the interests of key stakeholders, including original equipment manufacturers, recyclers, reconditioners, and consumers. A German case study demonstrates the viability of reconditioning, highlighting its niche role compared to recycling and repurposing. Key findings reveal that original equipment manufacturer decisions, particularly the use of reconditioned batteries in warranty cases, significantly influence market dynamics. Consumers' demand for reconditioned batteries depends on their quality, price, and greenhouse gas savings compared to new batteries. The study also examines the impacts of the EU Battery Regulation's recycled content mandates. The results underline the importance of aligning stakeholder strategies and regulatory frameworks to optimize end-of-life battery management. Promoting reconditioning can enhance circular economy practices while reducing environmental impacts, though challenges remain in aligning supply with demand and ensuring economic feasibility.