The Effects of ENSO Phenomenon on Rainfall and Crop Yield in Arsi Zone, Ethiopia

The primary coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon responsible for regional and global climate variability over an interannual time period is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Evaluating the effects of El Niño and La Niña phenomena on rainfall and crop yield production over the Arsi zone is the primary goal. The issues facing decision-makers simply assign grades to individuals and communities without considering the effects of ENSO occurrences on crop yield and the various ways that seasonal rainfall is used in agriculture. The knowledge is restricted on El Niño and La Niña phenomena and their impact on crop production during the Belg and Kiremt seasons in the Arsi zone. The Central Statistical Service (CSS) provided agricultural data from 1995 to 2020, while https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS-2.0 provided satellite rainfall data from 1981 to 2021. Crop yields over the study period and the correlations between crop, ENSO phase, and rainfall data were established. When we examined the relationship between agricultural yields and rainfall during ENSO events, the crops showed that they produced more during neutral, El Niño, and La Niña events relative to rainfall amounts and the distribution showed a decline during El Niño compared to neutral and La Niña events. Meher and Belg crop yields were more affected by strong ENSO episodes. Over the Arsi zone, the ENSO phases affect the distribution of seasonal rainfall and agriculture productivity. In the end, this research can provide important insights for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to lessen the effects of climate change.