Fishers’ responses to future catch declines in Jamaican small-scale fisheries

Abstract Small-scale fishers across the globe are facing significant challenges as a result of increasing social and ecological pressures. Indeed, current trends in global fish catch illustrate much variability in future fish stock availability. These conditions create a decision environment where fishers must make trade-offs to continue their normal practices despite projected hardships or leave the fishery to find alternative livelihood options. However, fishers of small-island states may have limited options, exacerbated by their socio-economic environment, coupled with institutional policies that may limit their ability to diversify their fishing strategies. This study explored fishers’ responses to a hypothetical decline in fish catch and the variables that predict their responses. Using a structured questionnaire, we interviewed 372 fishers in Jamaica to examine the influence of catch and effort dynamics and fisher livelihood demographics on their response to a decline in fish catch. We found that most fishers would continue their normal fishing practices in response to a decline in fish catch. Using a multinomial logistic regression, we found that fishers’ occupational multiplicity, catch quantity, and catch diversity contributed significantly to fishers' decisions. These results demonstrate that the interplay of multi-scalar factors may influence fishers’ decision-making to future ecological changes and influence their social adaptive capacity. The effectiveness of fisheries policies aimed at supporting the adaptive capacity of small-scale fisheries will need to consider the diverse motivations contributing to fishers' decision-making, moving beyond conventional assumptions of fisher behaviors. Further, our findings suggest that policymakers can enhance the efficacy of fisheries policies by crafting more targeted strategies that not only acknowledge the social complexities at play but policies that can also contribute to the resilience and sustainability of small-scale fishing communities.