Analysis of the dynamics of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure objects under geopolitical tensions

The article provides a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the dynamics of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure objects within the context of global geopolitical tensions for the period 2023-2024. Based on the statistical processing of data from leading cybersecurity organizations (CISA, ENISA, Mandiant, Kaspersky, Dragos) and national regulators, statistically significant patterns of increasing frequency, intensity, and complexity of cyber incidents have been established. The application of multifactor analysis and regression modeling allowed for the verification of a correlation (r = 0.78, p < 0.001) between geopolitical conflicts and cyberattack indicators.Differentiated sectoral analysis revealed the prioritization of cyberattacks on energy (28.9% of incidents), telecommunications (22.3%), and banking (18.5%) infrastructure. Using ARIMA and Cox proportional hazards models, it was established that Ukraine shows a disproportionate increase in the number of cyberattacks (70%) compared to global average indicators (43%), which statistically confirms the hypothesis about the use of cyberspace as a domain for conducting hybrid warfare.An attribution analysis using a Bayesian approach was conducted, which allowed for the establishment of the state affiliation of a significant number of cyberattacks with high confidence (92%, p < 0.001). The obtained results are of practical importance for developing strategies for the cyber defense of critical infrastructure in conditions of prolonged geopolitical conflicts.