Can outcomes on physical tests predict future sporting success? A retrospective study of cross-country skiers

Talent identification aims to discover athletes with qualities that suggest potential future success in a specific sport. To aid in this quest, physical tests are frequently used. However, the ability of such tests to predict future sporting success remains underexplored, especially since it is rare for test results to be retrospectively analysed to determine whether those who later became successful athletes had favourable physical test outcomes in their youth. This study aims to analyse the relationship between physical test results from a young age and future sporting success in the context of cross-country skiing. A cohort design with a retrospective approach was utilised. The cohort consists of Swedish cross-country skiers (n = 193) who underwent physical tests (n = 9) before being admitted into ski high schools between 2002 and 2006. The test results of this cohort were analysed to explore their potential to predict future sporting success, using FIS-points, the official ranking and point system established by the International Ski and Snowboard Federation. Sporting success has also been analysed in relation to variables such as ski discipline (sprint and distance), sex and the relative age effect (birth quartile). In general, it can be concluded that the test results had either no correlation or a weak correlation with future sporting success across sprint and distance disciplines in cross-country skiing. Consequently, this study questions the value of physical tests as an instrument in talent identification processes.