Analysis of the impact of price incentives and precipitation fluctuations on maize planting area and yield

Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change, maize, as a critical global food and feed crop, plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development. This study utilizes panel data from 116 prefecture-level cities across nine provinces in China from 2003 to 2019 to analyze the dynamic impacts of maize prices, fertilizer price indices, and monthly precipitation on maize planting area and yield, employing fixed-effects models and the GMM estimation method. The empirical model incorporates key variables such as the previous year’s maize price, fertilizer price index, precipitation from March to May (affecting planting area), and monthly precipitation from April to September (affecting yield), while also accounting for control variables including urban population density, effective irrigation rate, industrial structure, and mechanization level. The results indicate that the previous year’s maize price and fertilizer price index exert significant positive effects on yield, while the fertilizer price index positively influences planting area, and maize price shows a significant negative effect on planting area. The impact of precipitation varies by month: precipitation in July and August enhances yield, whereas precipitation in April and September negatively affects yield. Additionally, March precipitation has a significant negative effect on planting area, while April precipitation positively affects planting area. Robustness tests further confirm the reliability of these findings. Moreover, the study identifies a diminishing marginal effect of agricultural technological progress and proposes policy recommendations, including optimizing irrigation infrastructure, promoting stress-resistant crop varieties, and fostering technological innovation. These findings provide theoretical insights and empirical support for improving maize production efficiency and ensuring food security.