Calculation of COVID-19 disease burden using Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic disability weights and analysis of transmission characteristics
The real-time DW estimation method proposed in this study effectively and accurately reflects the dynamic changes in the COVID-19 disease burden amidst ongoing virus mutations, providing crucial reference data for the evaluation and formulation of public health policies. Furthermore, the study provides insights into the transmission interval of COVID-19 and behavioral changes during the pandemic, offering valuable insights for the potential outbreak of future "Disease X."
Authors
- Zhe Tian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9482-6473)
- Qun Gao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2148-5807)
- Song Tang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3219-1422)
- Wenxiu Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7325-3583)
- Hua Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1903-836X)
- Min Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9034-3175)
- Yu Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3681-4298)
- Wenhui Gao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1919-2137)
- Bai Ji (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0398-9109)
- Wei An
Institutions
- Chinese Center For Disease Control and Prevention (CN)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences (CN)
- Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CN)
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- BMC Public Health
- Published
- 2025-06-02
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-025-23273-3
- Primary Topic
- Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Chinese Academy of Sciences