The Impact of RCEP Tariff Reductions on the Trade Structure of China's High-Tech Man-ufacturing Industry —A GTAP Simulation Analysis

This paper employs a dynamic recursive approach to update the GTAP macroeconomic database and analyzes the impact of the full implementation of tariff commitment schedules in RCEP countries on the trade structure of China's high-tech manufacturing industry, using a weighted average of the tariff schedules across RCEP member states. The study finds that RCEP tariff con-cessions significantly promote trade growth in China's high-tech manufacturing sector, but with industry heterogeneity: imports and exports of electronic and communication equipment, as well as computers and office equipment, show notable increases, while trade in pharmaceutical manufacturing and aerospace equipment contracts. China's trade volume with RCEP member states grows significantly, whereas trade with non-member states declines. Accordingly, China should fully leverage the tariff reduction opportunities under RCEP to enhance the international competitiveness of its high-tech manufacturing sector, deepen cooperation among member states, strengthen talent cultivation, and thereby foster high-quality development in China's high-tech manufacturing industry.