Modelling Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Persistence of populations may be uncertain for large carnivore species, especially for those established in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we studied the Eurasian lynx in Western Europe established in the Upper Rhine meta-population (i.e., Jura, Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations) and the Alpine population. These populations are currently considered endangered or critically endangered due to high anthropogenic mortality, small population size and low genetic diversity, and isolation. We assessed lynx persistence over a 50-year time horizon by implementing a spatially-explicit individual-based model, while accounting for road mortality and habitat selection. Forecasts showed a steady growth rapidly reaching a more stable phase for the Alpine and Jura populations, and a more heterogeneous positive growth with less precision for the Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were limited, the Jura population playing the role of a crossroad. Finally, the persistence of lynx in Western Europe seems likely on a large scale over the next 50 years. Indeed, simulations showed high female occupancy as well as average lynx density over the core areas of the four studied populations. Nevertheless, these results should be interpreted with the model limitations in mind, concerning the absence of movement barriers and inbreeding depression.

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Publication Details

Journal
Peer Community Journal
Published
2025-06-02
DOI
https://doi.org/10.24072/pcjournal.543
Primary Topic
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Modelling Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Marco Heurich, Anaïs Charbonnel, Sylvia Idelberger, Fridolin Zimmermann et al.
Peer Community Journal
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
article

Modelling Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Marco Heurich, Anaïs Charbonnel, Sylvia Idelberger, Fridolin Zimmermann, Nolwenn Drouet‐Hoguet, Laetitia Blanc, Micha Herdtfelder, Sarah Bauduin, Estelle Germain, Christophe Duchamp, Stephanie Kramer‐Schadt, Olivier Giménez, Alain Morand
article en

Abstract

Persistence of populations may be uncertain for large carnivore species, especially for those established in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we studied the Eurasian lynx in Western Europe established in the Upper Rhine meta-population (i.e., Jura, Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations) and the Alpine population. These populations are currently considered endangered or critically endangered due to high anthropogenic mortality, small population size and low genetic diversity, and isolation. We assessed lynx persistence over a 50-year time horizon by implementing a spatially-explicit individual-based model, while accounting for road mortality and habitat selection. Forecasts showed a steady growth rapidly reaching a more stable phase for the Alpine and Jura populations, and a more heterogeneous positive growth with less precision for the Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were limited, the Jura population playing the role of a crossroad. Finally, the persistence of lynx in Western Europe seems likely on a large scale over the next 50 years. Indeed, simulations showed high female occupancy as well as average lynx density over the core areas of the four studied populations. Nevertheless, these results should be interpreted with the model limitations in mind, concerning the absence of movement barriers and inbreeding depression.

Peer Community JournalVol. 5
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), École Pratique des Hautes Études (FR), University of Freiburg (DE), Université de Montpellier (FR), Bavarian Forest National Park (DE), Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive (FR), Stiftung Rheinland-Pfalz für Innovation (DE), French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environments (FR), Life Services (United States) (US), University of Inland Norway (NO), Forest Research Institute (BG), Unité Mixte de Recherche sur les Herbivores (FR), Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (DE), Centre d'Études et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), Technische Universität Berlin (DE), University of Lausanne (CH)
Bundesamt für Naturschutz
Openalex Percentile: Top 88%
Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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