WEB-BASED SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATION FORECASTING MALANG STATE ARMY POLYTECHNIC USING THE TIME SERIES METHOD

This research aims to analyze trends in research publications by lecturers and students at the Malang Army State Polytechnic using the Single Moving Average method. This method is used to predict the number of publications by filtering out random data fluctuations, thereby producing a clearer picture of trends. The data used in this research includes the number of publications by lecturers and students in a certain period. The research results show that the Single Moving Average method is effective in predicting publication trends by capturing the average pattern of the available data. Observed publication trends show a steady increase over time, although there are small fluctuations within certain periods. This research also highlights the importance of encouraging the active participation of lecturers and students in research activities to improve the quality and quantity of scientific publications. It is hoped that these findings can provide a basis for the Malang State Army Polytechnic to design more effective strategies to increase research and publication productivity in the future. The methods used in this research provide a useful tool for institutional management to monitor and plan research developments more accurately.