Crime Forecasting in the Context of Global Problems of Humankind

The article explores the relationship between contemporary global challenges and prospective transformations of crime, focusing on key factors such as the depletion of natural resources, environmental degradation, growing military conflicts, global demographic changes, the spread of both new and known diseases, and deepening economic inequality. These phenomena are regarded as fundamental determinants that can influence the nature, dynamics and forms of criminal activity in the context of globalization. The author pays particular attention to multilevel social and technological changes that contribute to the evolution of crime, including its digitalization and transnational nature. Depending on the predictive trend, the following forms of crime with high risks of scaling up are distinguished: deprivation, ecogenic, military-induced, population, epidemiological and cybernetic. It is evident that each of these types of crime is associated with one or more predictive trends and contingent on the probability of their materialization in the medium or long term. Concurrently, it is observed that the presented criminal trends already occupy a substantial position in the contemporary sociocommunicative space. The discussion of their magnitude, dynamics, and associated characteristics is thus brought into the domain of probabilistic analysis. The article substantiates the need for a multidisciplinary and systemic approach to analyzing and forecasting crime in the context of a changing global landscape. This approach facilitates a more effective identification of interrelationships between social, environmental, economic and technological processes, thereby clarifying their impact on the nature of criminal activity. The author emphasizes that understanding these interrelationships in the long term contributes to the development of strategies capable of countering future threats determined by the changing conditions of humanity.