Mapping the cost competitiveness of African green hydrogen imports to Europe

Abstract Governments in many European countries have high hopes for cheap green hydrogen (H 2 ) from Africa to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors. Using geospatial levelized cost models, this study evaluates the economic feasibility of exporting green H 2 in the form of ammonia from Africa to Europe under four realistic financing scenarios by 2030. Our findings suggest that without European policy interventions, green H 2 from Africa remains prohibitively expensive with least costs from €4.2 kg H2 −1 to €4.9 kg H2 −1 depending on the interest rate environment. Using de-risking policy, we identify 214 locations in six African countries that may be competitive in the current interest rate environment, yet many of these face a challenging security situation casting doubt on long-term investments. Under optimal policy and interest rate scenarios, we find a least cost of €3.2 kg H2 −1 in Mauritania by 2030. Overall, de-risking and strategic location selection are key to make African green H 2 exports competitive on the global stage.