Integrating Stochastic Geological Modeling and Injection–Production Optimization in Aquifer Underground Gas Storage: A Case Study of the Qianjiang Basin

Addressing the critical challenges of sealing integrity and operational optimization in aquifer gas storage (AGS), this study focuses on a block within the Qianjiang Basin to systematically investigate geological modeling and injection–production strategies. Utilizing 3D seismic interpretation, drilling, and logging data, a stochastic geological modeling approach was employed to construct a high-resolution 3D reservoir model, elucidating the distribution of reservoir properties and trap configurations. Numerical simulations optimized the gas storage parameters, yielding an injection rate of 160 MMSCF/day (40 MMSCF/well/day) over 6-month-long hot seasons and a production rate of 175 MMSCF/day during 5-month-long cold seasons. Interval theory was innovatively applied to assess fault stability under parameter uncertainty, determining a maximum safe operating pressure of 23.5 MPa—12.3% lower than conventional deterministic results. The non-probabilistic reliability analysis of caprock integrity showed a maximum 11.1% deviation from Monte Carlo simulations, validating the method’s robustness. These findings establish a quantitative framework for site selection, sealing system evaluation, and operational parameter design in AGS projects, offering critical insights to ensure safe and efficient gas storage operations. This work bridges theoretical modeling with practical engineering applications, providing actionable guidelines for large-scale AGS deployment.