Marginalisation and Peripheralisation of the EU? Multidimensional Crises and War in Ukraine as Catalysts for Changing Models of Contemporary Capitalism

This article examines the impact of the war in Ukraine on the evolution of contemporary models of capitalism, with a particular focus on the European Union through the lens of Comparative Political Economy. The analysis builds upon Andreas Nölke’s framework for classifying dominant varieties of capitalism, originally applied to institutional changes following the COVID-19 pandemic, extending its relevance to the context of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2022. The study identifies key catalysts and structural factors driving transformations in capitalism, emphasising their crisis-inducing effects within the EU, which are further analysed within the framework of global megatrends, interpreted through Dani Rodrik’s concept of the “trilemma”. The analysis highlights a critical concern; without the establishment of a new development paradigm and the creation of a new model for European capitalism, the EU risks becoming the greatest loser in the ongoing global rivalry. However, the divergent interests and limited development trajectories of many Member States pose significant challenges to achieving such a transformation.