Unintended Effects of Germany’s Nuclear Phase Out: A Rise in Mortality Due to Non-Communicable Respiratory Diseases

Abstract The discussion on nuclear power balances its risks against carbon emissions resulting from nuclear phase-out. This paper studies an important unintended consequence of abandoning nuclear power: the adverse health effects of increased air pollutants. I use the synthetic control method to study the causal effect of the German nuclear phase-out on mortality. I find that the nuclear plant closures resulted in 17 life years lost each year per 100,000 inhabitants or roughly 170 premature deaths per year from non-communicable respiratory diseases. This effect accounts for an 8% increase in mortality due to respiratory diseases and corresponds to around one billion euros per year in lost lives.