Potential spread of <i>Spodoptera frugiperda</i> Smith (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Türkiye under changing climate: Implications for management

Spodoptera frugiperda Smith (EPPO code LAPHFR) is a polyphagous pest infesting various crops in numerous regions of the world. Nevertheless, it has been reported from Türkiye recently; therefore, modeling its potential spread could help to halt further spread by monitoring and biosecurity efforts. Habitat suitability of LAPHFR was modeled by the Maximum entropy Entropy Model (MaxEnt) under current (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) climatic conditions in Türkiye. The model was trained and tested with 6667 global occurrence records and 12 environmental variables. The model with linear class feature and regularization multiplier of 1 was found to be optimum; therefore, all simulations were performed under these settings. The results revealed that the model predicted the habitat suitability of LAPHFR with high precision (AUC = 0.80). The bio12 (annual precipitation), followed by bio1 (annual mean temperature) and bio11 (mean temperature of coldest quarter), had the highest contributions towards model training, whereas bio1, bio10 (mean temperature of warmest quarter), and bio12 were the most influential predictors essential for the distribution of LAPHFR. Highly suitable areas for LAPHFR under the current climate, which will contract in the future. Overall, LAPHFR had high spread potential to the Black Sea and southeastern Anatolia regions in the country. The model predicted that LAPHFR has extensive spread potential to the other regions from where it has not been reported yet in the country. Therefore, urgent management and biosecurity efforts are needed in the areas having high habitat suitability for LAPHFR in the country.