Multiple dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals: recent trends and patterns in the United States

A growing body of fertility research focuses on uncertainty as a key contributor to fertility decision making and behaviors. In this paper, we identify and describe multiple components of uncertainty in fertility goals that, when analyzed together and in relation to macro-level trends, provide critical insight into fertility dynamics. Drawing from multiple streams of research on fertility goals and behaviors, we focus on (i) <i>goal uncertainty</i>, (ii) <i>realization uncertainty</i>, and (iii) <i>intensity of goals</i>. We use data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) 2002-2019 to estimate trends and patterns of these three dimensions of uncertainty in fertility goals, with a focus on variation across the life course and inequality by education and income. We link uncertainty in fertility goals with the quantum and timing of fertility intentions among U.S. women. The results show that realization uncertainty is pervasive, with up to 50% of women who intend children being uncertain whether they will actually follow through with those intentions, and intensity of intentions is low, with up to 25% of childless women who intend children saying that they would not be bothered if they did not have a child. Although goal uncertainty is overall stable across the study period, young and childless women show increasing realization uncertainty over time and hold their positive intentions less intensely. More socioeconomically advantaged women exhibit higher realization certainty and greater intensity of their goals. Women who are more certain of realizing their positive intentions and those who hold them more intensely report a higher number of additional intended children and a shorter time frame for future childbearing. We conclude by situating these findings in a broader climate of increasing uncertainty.