New Quality Productive Forces and Forestry Economic Resilience: Coordinated Development, Regional Differences, and Predictive Analysis

The synergistic development of new quality productive forces (NQPFs) and forestry economic resilience is vital for sustainable growth in China’s forestry sector, positioning the country as a global leader. This study develops a theoretical framework and employs spatial Kernel density, the Gini coefficient, spatial Markov chains, and geographical detectors to analyze coordination levels, regional disparities, evolutionary trends, and influencing factors. The results reveal that national coordination has progressed from imbalance to high-quality synergy, though regional disparities remain. Development trajectories show stability, with strong path dependence, a Matthew effect, and high transition probabilities between adjacent levels, accompanied by significant spatial spillovers. Factors such as economic development, openness, marketization, social security, the digital economy, and infrastructure play a major role in enhancing coupling coordination, while policy intervention and human capital show limited standalone effects, although their interactions are important. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are provided to guide China’s forestry economy in the new era.