A Study on the Impact Mechanism of Agricultural Trade on Agricultural Carbon Emissions

Controlling agricultural carbon emissions is crucial for addressing global environmental challenges. As a major player in agricultural trade, China needs to explore a specific pathway to reduce its agricultural carbon emissions. This study delves into the impact of China’s agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions: (1) The research demonstrates that agricultural trade (AT) significantly reduces China’s agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs), with robustness and endogeneity tests supporting these findings. (2) In the process of lowering agricultural carbon emissions, AT exerts both direct and indirect effects. The direct effect stems from the import substitution effect of agricultural trade, while the indirect effects include agricultural technological innovation (ATI) and the agricultural carbon emission intensity (ECI). (3) The reduction in ACEs is more pronounced in eastern regions, coastal areas, and non-major grain-producing regions. This study reveals the underlying mechanisms between AT and ACEs, suggesting that China has the potential to achieve mutual benefits in international trade and environmental protection. It also provides a trade-oriented perspective for formulating agricultural emission reduction policies.