Assessing the impacts of net-zero transport scenarios in France on biomass resources, hydrogen and electricity consumption

The transport sector in France accounts for 30% of national emissions and will require significant decarbonization effort to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Various technological solutions, from electric vehicles to renewable fuel such as biofuels and e-fuels, as well as changes in demand are envisioned to reach this target. We build three technological foresight scenarios and two sufficiency variants, mainly based on different readings of the European regulations banning the sale of internal-combustion-engine vehicles and setting Sustainable Aviation Fuel incorporation rates. The transport, hydrogen and biomass sectors are modeled in system dynamics to assess the detail impacts of these scenarios on biomass resources and energy consumption. In all scenarios, the total electricity demand increases drastically, regardless of the technological choices made for the vehicle fleets, mainly due to the production of e-fuels for aviation. None of the technological scenarios studied suggest that biomass supply is unfeasible. However, in a scenario with low electrification, there is a potentially increased dependence on imports for waste oils and fats, and competing uses or tensions with other demand sectors may arise over some biomass for anaerobic digestion and lignocellulosic resources. To reduce these potential tensions and the demand for electricity, sufficiency measures seem necessary in addition to technological advancements.