System Model Simulation of Soybean Production in Indonesia

Abstract Indonesia is one of the largest importers of soybeans in the world because domestic production is not enough to meet domestic demand for soybeans. Domestic production conditions continue to fall, so the government imports soybeans from abroad to meet the national supply. These problems must be understood so that the driving factors that cause these problems are known. In this study, we developed a system dynamics model to visualize the soybean production system. The researchers’ simulation model represented the soybean production system in 2000-2022 and with projection until 2043. This study focus on soybean production system. In conditions without policy, soybean production in Indonesia will be 189.217 tons in 2043. Production of this size cannot meet the demand for soybeans, which reached 3,645,400 tons in 2043. Resolving these issues requires several steps to obtain the expected solution. The policy scenarios implemented were a) a scenario without policy, b) a scenario of increasing productivity, c) a scenario of increasing crop area policy, and d) a combination scenario of increasing productivity and harvest area simultaneously. Of the several scenarios tested in the simulation model, the combination scenario of increasing productivity by 3 tons/ha and increasing soybean harvest area by 35% per year is the policy scenario that will quickly increase production and reduce imports (optimistic scenario). Simulation output data shows that soybean production can reach 3,670,510 tons to meet the demand for soybeans in 2029.