Projections of Extreme Precipitation Changes over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau: Exploring Thermodynamic and Dynamic Contributions

The Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), characterized by its intricate topography and pronounced altitudinal gradient, presents significant challenges for climate model simulations. This study assesses precipitation over the ETP using high-resolution (HR) and low-resolution (LR) models from CMIP6 HighResMIP. Both HR and LR models successfully reproduce the spatial distribution of annual precipitation, capturing the northwest-to-southeast increasing gradient. However, HR models significantly outperform LR models, reducing the annual mean precipitation bias from 1.09 mm/day to 1.00 mm/day (9% reduction, p < 0.05, two-tailed Student’s t-test) and decreasing RMSE by 12% (p < 0.05) in the ETP for the 1985–2014 period. Furthermore, HR models exhibit superior skill in simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over the Sichuan Basin. For the 1985–2014 period, HR models show markedly smaller biases in representing extreme precipitation and accurately reflect observed trends. Projections for the future suggest a pronounced intensification of extreme precipitation events across the region. Process-based scaling diagnostics attribute these changes predominantly to dynamical components, which account for approximately 85% of the total scaling change in HR models and 89% in LR models. These findings underscore the pivotal role of dynamical processes in shaping extreme precipitation and highlight the advantages of HR models in enhancing simulation fidelity. This study provides critical insights into climate model performance, offering robust information to inform climate mitigation and adaptation strategies tailored for the ETP.