Comparative Analysis of Lab-Data-Driven Models for International Friction Index Prediction in High Friction Surface Treatment (HFST)

High Friction Surface Treatments (HFSTs) are often utilized as a spot treatment to enhance selected areas with high friction demand rather than extended pavement sections and are helpful in increasing skid resistance and minimizing road accidents. A laboratory design approach was created to assess the fundamental ideas behind the international friction index (IFI) concept and update the present IFI model parameters for HFST applications based on test findings to gain a better understanding of HFST performance. Two aggregate types in three sizes were tested under controlled polishing cycles. Friction and texture were measured using the Dynamic Friction Tester (DFT) and Circular Track Meter (CTM). Three physics-informed empirical models, including logarithmic, power law, and polynomial models, were selected to better represent texture effects, nonlinear scaling, and complex interactions between COF and MPD. Results show that friction performance varies with aggregate type, gradation, and polishing, and that traditional IFI parameters may not fully capture HFST behavior. Model refinements are suggested to better represent HFST surface characteristics with the lowest testing Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) (0.049) and the highest predictive accuracy R2 (0.821); the logarithmic model was found to be the best. Sensitivity analysis revealed that IFI predictions are more sensitive to COF (ΔIFI: 14.3–17.7%) than MPD (ΔIFI: 1.5–6.0%) across all models. These results demonstrate how these models can improve HFST design and performance assessment while providing useful information for enhancing road safety. This process is a useful tool for evaluating HFST friction resistance in a lab setting since it calculates HFST skid resistance using results measured in the lab.