Simulating Near-Surface Winds in Europe with the WRF Model: Assessing Parameterization Sensitivity Under Extreme Wind Conditions

Accurately simulating near-surface wind speeds is indispensable for wind energy development, particularly under extreme weather conditions. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 6 km resolution to evaluate 80 m wind speed simulations over Europe, using the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Two cases were analyzed: a normal case with relatively weak winds, and an extreme case with intense cyclonic activity over 7 days, focusing on offshore wind farm regions and validated against Forschungsplattformen in Nord- und Ostsee (FINO) observational data. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by modifying key physical parameterizations associated with wind simulation to assess their impact on accuracy. Results reveal that while the model realistically captured temporal wind speed variations, errors were significantly amplified in extreme cases, with overestimation in weak wind regimes and underestimation in strong winds (approximately 1–3 m/s). The Asymmetrical Convective Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme demonstrated superior performance in extreme cases, while there were no significant differences among experiments under normal cases. These findings emphasize the critical role of physical parameterizations and the need for improved modeling approaches under extreme wind conditions. This research contributes to developing reliable wind speed simulations, supporting the operational stability of wind energy systems.