Construction of a prognotic model of GERD occurrence in overweight people

The article reliably recorded high chances of comorbid GERD with obesity with increased blood leptin content (OR = 3.51; 95.0% CI 1.62–612.5; p = 0.023), increased diameter of the esophageal opening of the diaphragm (OR = 1.94; 95.0% CI 1.11–3.41; p = 0.021), high BMI values (OR = 0.4; 95.0% CI 1.05–1.81; p = 0.018), increased total GERD-HRQL impact score (OR = 1.12; 95.0% CI 1–1.24; p = 0.044) and reduced chances with low blood NO₂ values (OR = 1.38; 95.0% CI 0.19–0.85; p = 0.021). A mathematical model of binary logistic regression for predicting the development of comorbid GERD and obesity was constructed. High qualification qualities of the developed model were determined: AUC = 0.91, at which the developed model has 97.14% sensitivity and 60% specificity.