Hotspots, evaluation methods and sustainable development of ecological carrying capacity research–based on bibliometric and knowledge mapping analysis

• A framework of “research status-assessment mechanism-sustainable development analysis” is established. • Comparison, synergistic mechanism, and scenario application analysis of ECC evaluation and prediction models are conducted. • Quantitative evaluation methods for sustainable development are summarised. • Recommendations and measures to address the weaknesses of existing studies. Ecological carrying capacity (ECC) assessment is a critical tool for coordinating regional human-land systems and promoting environmental sustainability. This study proposes a framework of “research status–assessment mechanism–sustainable development analysis,” which addresses the lack of bibliometric tools in previous research and the absence of a comprehensive overview of specific application areas or methodologies. We employ CiteSpace and VOSviewer to analyze research hotspots and emerging trends in the field, while also providing a comprehensive evaluation of the theoretical foundations, integration, and coupling of various assessment methods and predictive models, thereby offering new perspectives and methodologies for researchers. Additionally, we systematically review quantitative evaluation approaches related to sustainable development. Our findings indicate that current research emphasizes ecological footprints and sustainable development, with emerging frontiers extending to ecosystem services and water ecological carrying capacity. The ecological footprint method is widely applied and often enhanced through integration with emergy analysis and the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) method. System dynamics models are most commonly used, while the application of machine learning in ECC prediction is experiencing rapid growth. Future research should prioritize five directions: (i) innovating assessment methods and predictive models, (ii) addressing regional disparities, (iii) enhancing the integration of human-land systems, (iv) strengthening policy relevance, and (v) focusing on global-scale analyses and long-term forecasting. It provides theoretical support for improving the precision of ECC assessments, informing policy implementation, and advancing ecological sustainability, thereby fostering innovation in this field.