Food deserts, food mirages, and gentrification in Toronto, Canada

Few studies have explored links between retail food environments and gentrifying neighbourhoods across cities. As populations shift and commercial development continues, unpacking "food gentrification" processes in low-equity areas is important for ensuring healthy and equitable food access across cities. To further investigate this potential phenomenon, we used both primary (retailer consultations) and secondary (Canadian census, Toronto Public Health food inspection, land use zoning) data to explore cross-sectional links between food deserts and food mirages, four measures of gentrification in Toronto using the GENUINE gentrification tool, and Business Improvement Areas (BIAs). Food deserts represented about a tenth (9.3 %) of all dissemination areas in Toronto while food mirages represented only 4.5 %. Yet, nearly half (45 %) of all low-equity areas in Toronto were food deserts and food mirages (affecting approximately 516,000 residents). All gentrification measures employed, including BIAs, were also significantly associated with the existence of food deserts (between 2.5 and 14.5 times higher odds, respectively) while only two were associated with the existence of food mirages after adjusting for commercial zoning (between 1.6 and 2.7 times higher odds, respectively). Surprisingly, food deserts, not food mirages, were more strongly associated with gentrification. Longitudinal research is needed to better capture and monitor the evolution of food mirages.