Clinical and Histopathological Determinants for Kidney Allograft Survival in the Eurotransplant Senior Program (ESP) at the Time of Allocation

To address the shortage of organs for kidney transplantation, the Eurotransplant Senior Program (ESP) was established to enhance kidney allocation from elderly donors. This study aimed to evaluate post-transplant outcomes of deceased donor grafts and identify prognostic factors within the ESP population. We therefore analyzed patient data from 64 ESP recipients and their donors transplanted at our center between 2017 and 2022. Time-zero biopsies were analyzed using AI image analysis software for glomerular density and glomerulosclerosis. One-year patient and allograft survival rates were 96.9% and 85.9%. 5-year survival rate was 74.6%, as opposed to about 41.0% historically reported for patients on dialysis. Delayed Graft Function occurred in 29.7% of cases, with recipient coronary heart disease, BMI-disparities, and prolonged cold ischemia time as major predictors (<i>P</i> < 0.05). Histopathological analysis revealed that the degree of glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) were associated with graft failure in multivariable analyses (<i>P</i> < 0.05). Arteriolosclerosis (arteriolar hyalinosis) correlated with a higher risk for primary non-function (<i>P</i> < 0.05). The number of HLA mismatches was not significantly associated with graft outcome. Including prognostic baseline characteristics as well as histopathological AI analysis into individual allocation decisions during organ-acceptance process might improve allograft survival within the ESP and should prospectively be studied.