Shift in Area towards Natural Rubber in Wayanad District of Kerala – A Markov Chain Approach

Kerala is the highest producer of natural rubber in India, followed by Tripura and Karnataka. The crops such as cashew, pepper, areca nut, tapioca, cocoa and cardamom were identified as the competing crops of rubber in Wayanad district. The structural change in area of crops was also examined using the Markov chain approach. The study found that rubber was growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.28 per cent during 2005-06 to 2014-15. Markov chain analysis revealed that rubber was the most stable crop as it retained highest share (82.22 %) of its area during the same period. The increasing demand for the natural rubber in the domestic market and steep inclination in the natural rubber prices, decreased productivity of cashew, decrease in the yield and crop loss due disease occurred in pepper together contributed towards shift in area under rubber cultivation in Wayanad district during the period.