Potential impacts of summer temperatures in Iraq on the subsequent season's rainfall

Abstract Under anthropogenic climate change, Iraq has been affected by rising temperatures. This trend has been evident since the 1970s. Rainfall has taken a general downward trend in all regions of the country. In this study, we analyzed the potential effects of summer temperatures on the subsequent season's rainfall in Iraq. The Mann–Kendall test and simple correlation coefficient were used to find climate correlation and coupling. The results showed an inverse pattern with an opposite relationship between temperature and rainfall, and a parallel pattern, showing a direct relationship. The parallel correlation pattern was less common than the negative correlation pattern. The correlation between summer temperatures and total rainfall in the following season showed a negative relationship, and June was the summer month most closely linked to rainfall. The upcoming season tended to be dry when June's temperature was higher than average. Synoptic correlation and coupling were also performed for two years of data. The first (1993) had moderate temperature and humidity in the subsequent season. The second (2010) had hot, dry weather and no precipitation in the subsequent season. The atmospheric conditions were different, and each year had different atmospheric patterns. This contributed to making the first year moderate and humid, while the second year was hot and dry.