CARBON BUDGET BALANCE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN OF CHINA

Focusing on the carbon budget balance in the context of global change, this study examines the carbon budget balance in the Yellow River Basin of China in the context of global change, using various methods to explore the driving mechanisms and predict net carbon emissions under different scenarios for 2030.From 2005 to 2020, direct carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin decreased, carbon sink areas expanded, and net carbon emissions growth slowed down.Carbon emissions are mainly influenced by energy economy, with the effect of natural factors enhancing over time.The forecast results show that carbon emission under the ecological protection scenario in 2030 is 12.6310 8 t, which is 97.08% of the natural development scenario, and 95.61% of the urban expansion scenario.Therefore, controlling the expansion of construction land and high energy consumption, optimizing land use structure, and strengthening ecological land protection are recommended.The government should enhance low-carbon regulation of national land use and coordinate supporting policies to achieve carbon balance.This study has scientific reference significance for low-carbon and green development in resource-based areas with high energy consumption.