Assessing the Production of Cereals Exposed to Drought Due to Climate Change in Iran

Agriculture, as a crucial economic and social sector in Iran, has always been significantly influenced by weather conditions, water availability, and farm management practices.Enhancing productivity and optimizing resource management in crop production are essential to achieving sustainable agricultural development and ensuring food security.This research aimed to investigate how much wheat, barley, and corn production, separately from irrigated and rainfed crops, will be affected by the severity of climatic drought (based on the CMIP6) in Iran.This research was carried out using the amount of wheat, barley, and corn production in all the provinces, which was provided by the Agricultural Jihad Organization during the years 1371 to 1402.Climate data was obtained from the NEX-GDDP database, and the De Martonne aridity index was calculated to investigate changes in aridity under climate scenarios.The results indicated that during the baseline period, the production of rainfed wheat, barley, and corn under semi-arid to very arid climatic conditions was approximately 2,076, 434, and 15 thousand tons per year, respectively.With the intensification of arid conditions across the country, these production levels are projected to increase to 3,333, 693, and 16 thousand tons under the SSP2 scenario and further rise to 3,558, 842, and 16 thousand tons under the SSP5 scenario.Additionally, the production of irrigated wheat, barley, and corn in semi-arid to very arid climatic conditions during the baseline period stands at approximately 6,240, 1,683, and 5,842 thousand tons, respectively.Under the SSP2 climate scenario, the production is expected to reach about 7,126, 1,757, and 6,253 thousand tons, while in the SSP5 scenario, the estimated production is approximately 7,348, 1,780, and 6,324 thousand tons.The findings revealed notable spatial differences in crop production across the country, highlighting that the climatic conditions, particularly in the central, southern, southeastern, and southwestern regions, are becoming increasingly arid.It is crucial to implement smart planning and policies, adopt advanced technologies, and improve the management of water and soil resources to mitigate the adverse impacts of these changes and better adapt to evolving conditions.Addressing these challenges and implementing effective measures are essential steps toward achieving sustainability in the agriculture and natural resources sectors.