Dampak ENSO Terhadap Curah Hujan Ekstrem di Pulau Papua

One of the sea surface temperature anomaly phenomena that influences rainfall in Indonesia is the El-Niño Southern Oscillaton (ENSO) which occurs in the Pacific Ocean. This also has an impact on rainfall on Papua Island, considering the island's geographical position which faces the Pacific Ocean. The impact of this rainfall could potentially be at an extreme level. This research aims to analyze the impact of the El-Niño Southern Oscillaton (ENSO) on extreme rainfall on Papua Island during the period 2002-2022. The extreme rainfall indices used are Annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), Consecutive dry days (CDD), Consecutive wet days (CWD) and Number of Days Above nn mm (Rnn). The impact of ENSO on extreme rainfall on Papua Island was studied using daily rainfall data from BMKG and ERA 5 reanalysis. The results of the study showed changes in extreme rainfall trends that occurred on Papua Island in the 2002-2022 period. Changes in the trends of PRCPTOT, Rnn, and CWD tend to increase predominantly influenced by La-Niña in the DJF, MAM and SON periods. Meanwhile, trend changes tend to decrease, influenced by El-Niño in the JJA and SON periods, which can be seen in the CDD index.