Advanced Statistical Modeling for Forecasting Non-Oil GDP in Saudi Arabia Using Time-Series Techniques

This paper presents an analytical assessment of the trends and future forecasts for non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia. As Saudi Arabia shifts its focus towards diversifying its economy and reducing reliance on oil, understanding the trajectory of non-oil GDP has become increasingly important. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from 2010 to 2023 sourced from the General Authority for Statistics, we apply advanced time-series forecasting techniques to model and predict the future performance of non-oil GDP. Our findings suggest that the non-oil sector will continue to experience growth, driven by ongoing diversification efforts and strategic investments across various non-oil sectors. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers, highlighting the critical role of non-oil industries in shaping Saudi Arabia’s economic future. This study contributes to the understanding of the economic transition in the Kingdom and offers a foundation for future research and policy decisions aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth and achieving the goals of Vision 2030.