Forest fire risk zone mapping from AHP and WLC models: the case of forest zones in Mamasani and Rostam, Fars

Background and Objectives: Various factors influence the occurrence, spread, and controllability of forest fires.A hazard fire zones map can be created by identifying these significant influencing factors.This map illustrates the severity of fires across different zones and stages and is a suitable tool for managing, preventing, and mitigating the damage caused by fires for natural resource managers.The aim of this study is to establish fire risk zones based on the range of these environmental factors in the forest areas of Mamsani and Rostam counties, located in the northwest of Fars province, which covers an area of 2,188.7 square kilometers. Materials and Methods:The environmental criteria utilized in this study include altitude, slope, slope direction, distance from roads, distance from residential areas, distance from agricultural zones, average annual temperature, average annual precipitation, and land use.After collecting data from various sources, fuzzy concepts were applied to standardize the criteria using different fuzzy membership functions.A hierarchical analysis process (AHP) was employed to weight and prioritize the criteria.To facilitate this, a questionnaire was developed, and the criteria were evaluated by experts.All weighted criteria were overlaid using the weighted linear combination (WLC) method.The data obtained from the questionnaires were extracted and analyzed using Expert Choice software to determine the weighting of the criteria.Each selected criterion was also represented as a map using geographic information system (GIS) technology within the ArcMap software environment.Finally, the fire risk map was generated, categorizing areas into five zones: very high, high, medium, low, and very low fire risk zones. Results:The results show that the burned areas have a high correspondence with the implemented model in relation to the current situation.Among the factors analyzed, the three main factors for fires in the area are the distance from agricultural land, the distance from roads, and the distance from residential areas, with relative weights of 0.254, 0.197, and 0.179, respectively.The findings revealed that the majority of fires occurred within the 1500-1900 elevation range and the 0-10% slope category.As the slope increased, the incidence of fires decreased.Additionally, the southern aspect was found to be particularly susceptible to fires. Conclusions:It can be concluded that most fires occurred in areas with easier human access, while other factors were less significant.Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that mapping forest fire hazard zones can assist managers in preventing fires in various forested areas.