Assessment of survival rate of wild almond plantations in Bazoft based on topographic condition

Background and Purpose: Forest plantation projects have gained increasing significance in recent years due to their environmental, economic, and social benefits.As indicators of development, these projects represent key international efforts.This study aims to assess the current status of forestry plans involving Amygdalus scoparia (Spach.) in four regions of central Bazoft.Furthermore, it seeks to compare the qualitative and quantitative aspects of forestry operations in these regions while evaluating the viability and adaptability of tree and shrub species planted in various topographies. Materials and methods:This study utilized a completely randomized design to select 153 sample plots, each measuring 400 m (20 20 m).Within each sample plot, both quantitative and qualitative characteristics were assessed.The quantitative parameters included mean crown area and average height, while the qualitative parameters focused on viability and survival.The Kaplan-Meier estimator was employed to estimate the survival distribution function, average survival rate, and mortality risk for each forest area.Survival function tests associated with this estimator were conducted to evaluate the potential differentiation among the areas.A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed, with classified factors including region (four categories), planting time (years 2006 to 2009), aspect (four primary directions), slope (two categories: greater than 25% and less than 25%), altitude, and density of primary seedlings.Mean values were compared using Tukey's HSD test. Results:The comparison of survival rates revealed a significant difference in the success of plantations with the studied species over short spatial distances.The highest survival rate after one decade was 0.88, while the lowest was 0.64.Both survival function tests, namely the Log-rank and Wilcoxon tests, indicated a significant difference between plantation areas with Amygdalus scoparia.Additionally, the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, utilizing the Wald statistic and incorporating topographic factors (slope, aspect, and altitude) as covariates, demonstrated that the highest risk ratio for Amygdalus scoparia plantations occurred in areas with western and northern aspects, as well as regions with low slopes.The influence of aspect on the vigor, crown area, and height of Amygdalus scoparia corroborated the survival rate results, indicating afforestation failure in western and, particularly, northern aspects. Conclusion:Overall, the results indicate that the survival and success rates of forestry plantations are largely dependent on the region, regardless of topographic conditions.It is likely that other unexamined factors significantly influence plantation success.Nevertheless, the study concludes that southern slopes should be prioritized for the plantation of Amygdalus scoparia in the Bazoft region.