Measuring the Asymmetric Effects of Broad Money Supply Policy and Its Impact on Public Spending Using the Bootstrap NARDL Model: Iraq as a Case Study

The Iraqi economy suffers from increased public spending due to the rise in money supply resulting from the growth in hard currency oil revenues. Therefore, this research aims to determine the relationship between broad money supply and public spending. The study is based on the hypothesis that a monetary policy shock, represented by money supply, has a positive and proportional impact on public spending. To test this hypothesis, the inductive method was employed alongside the analysis of several macroeconomic variables and the measurement of asymmetric effects using the dynamic cumulative multiplier, in order to obtain results that could be generalized. The study found that the broad money supply affects public spending, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.418%. The short-run symmetric relationship further confirms that a 1% increase in money supply leads to a 0.32% increase in public spending in the second month, rising to 0.45% in the third month, and stabilizing at 0.40% until the end of the study.