The dynamic evolution mechanism of liquefied natural gas trade dependency networks: International implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and increased uncertainty about global energy supply, international liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade relies on networks of increasing importance. In recent years, the frequency of emergencies and geopolitical risks has caused countries to face great challenges in the energy supply chain, making it urgent to establish new trade partnerships to ensure energy security. For example, in the case of Russia, its LNG exports to Europe have significantly declined after the conflict, while exports to the Asian market have grown substantially, indicating a realignment of trade flows. Therefore, this study analyzes the evolution of network characteristics under different risk scenarios by constructing an LNG trade dependency network model. Specifically, based on data from 2013 to 2022, this paper examines the dynamic evolution of the LNG trade dependency network in terms of connectivity, cohesion, and efficiency, using three core indicators: network density, average clustering coefficient, and average path length. It is found that driven by global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the LNG trade network exhibits a more cohesive and efficient structure. Major importing countries diversify risks and strengthen supply chain resilience by improving network density and clustering coefficient. This finding not only provides theoretical support for understanding the evolution mechanism of international energy trade dependency networks but also serves as a reference for countries to develop diversified trade strategies and achieve energy supply security in response to unexpected geopolitical risks.