A Study on Burden and Trend Prediction of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in China's Population Aged Under 45 Years Using Time-Series Machine Learning Models Based on Global Burden of Disease from 1990 to 2021

Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a severe cerebrovascular disease characterized by its high morbidity, disability, and mortality rates. In recent years, lifestyle changes, increased work stress, and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases among younger populations have contributed to a gradual increase in ICH incidence. These trends prompted the current study. This study analyzes the epidemiological patterns of ICH in China's population under 45 years of age from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends from 2022 to 2036. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database (1990-2021), we analyzed trends in age-standardized rates for China's under-45 population (stratified by males, females, and both sexes), including: Age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR),Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR),Age-standardized death rate (ASDR),Age-standardized years lived with disability rate (ASYR).Three time-series machine learning algorithms were employed to predict future trends of ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and ASYR for males and females separately. Results: From 1990 to 2021, all age-standardized metrics (ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and ASYR) for ICH in China's under-45 population showed consistent annual declines. Machine learning models project that these rates will continue to decrease over the next 15 years. Conclusion: While projections indicate a declining burden of ICH in China's under 45 population, the absolute disease burden remains substantial due to: The condition's high morbidity, disability, and mortality. The critical social role of this age group as the primary workforce. These factors necessitate sustained public health attention.