Trends Analysis of Ischemic Heart Disease Burden attributed to high body mass index in Chinese adults from 1990 to 2021

Objective To analyze the burden of IHD disease caused by high body mass index (BMI) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of IHD. Methods Based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2021, the mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates attributed to high body mass index (BMI) and their corresponding standardized rates were obtained for different genders and ages in China from 1990 to 2021. The Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend of disease change. The ARIMA model was used to predict the disease burden of ischemic heart disease attributable to high body mass index in Chinese adults in 2022-2030. Results The IHD standardized mortality and DALYs rates attributed to high body mass index increased from 3.34% and 79.21% in 1990 to 8.24% and 175.05% in 2021, respectively. The results of Joinpoint log-linear regression model showed that from 1990 to 2021, both the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALYs rate showed an overall upward trend (AAPC: 2.95% and 2.58%, respectively, P<0.001). The burden of IHD disease attributed to high BMI has a clear gender difference, manifested as a higher burden of disease in men than in women. The Joinpoint log-linear regression model showed that the burden of IHD due to high BMI increased across genders, and the increase was greater in men than in women. In different age groups, the burden of IHD disease attributable to high BMI is predominant in middle-aged and older adults. The ARIMA model shows that the standardized mortality rate will reach 9.63% (95%UI: 8.36% to 10.89%) and the standardized DALYs rate will reach 201.84% (95%UI: 178.21% to 225.48%) in 2030. Conclusion The burden of ischemic heart disease attributed to high body mass index in China from 1990 to 2021 shows an increasing trend. In the prevention of ischemic cardiomyopathy, attention should be paid to the high BMI population, especially the male, middle-aged and elderly population.