Statistical Estimation of Reliability Values for Large-Panel Buildings Based on Passportization Results

In 2017-2018 and 2023-2024, a full passportization of the housing stock of apartment buildings in the city of Almaty (Republic of Kazakhstan) was carried out for the first time. The database includes 2666 multi-story large-panel buildings of different numbers of stories, from 2 to 9 floors. The aim of this study is to assess the reliability of standard-series large-panel buildings based on previous experimental research and passportization results, as well as to evaluate their seismic resistance and reliability using passportization data. The latest earthquakes in Almaty have allowed for refinements in seismic impact models. Therefore, the reliability assessment has been conducted considering this information using the Monte Carlo method. The technical condition of large-panel buildings has been assessed. The earthquake recurrence is taken into account according to the current "Map of seismic zoning of the Republic of Kazakhstan". Reliability value for the whole group of large-panel buildings has been obtained. It is revealed that large-panel buildings with the first flexible or brick floor are not earthquake-resistant. For the first time, the theoretical analysis of reliability and failure values for 2 types of large-panel buildings with the use of experimental data is performed. Regional peculiarities of seismic impact for Almaty City are taken into account. The results of reliability and failure values estimations are used for practical recommendations on risk reduction and expected losses in case of possible earthquakes. The novelty lies in the reliability and failure assessment based on the large-scale passportization of the housing stock in Almaty. It is established that the main types of large-panel buildings are earthquake-resistant. Estimates of earthquake resistance according to the results of passportization and the results of reliability calculations coincided. It is proposed to reinforce large-panel buildings with the first flexible or brick floor (33 buildings). The method of reinforcement should be determined by special studies. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2025-011-05-019 Full Text: PDF