Research on the Impact of Pharmaceutical R&D Investment on Financial Performance: Empirical Test of the Inverted U-Shaped Relationship

研发投入是推动行业增强盈利能力、形成核心竞争优势、提高绩效分配额度的核心动力源。本文以2020~2024年30家医药制造业上市公司的平衡面板数据为研究样本，分别运用门限回归模型、固定效应模型和分位数回归模型进行实证研究发现，医药制造业上市公司研发投入对发挥绩效激励作用存在单一门限值即相对平衡点，研发投入与财务绩效之间呈现显著的倒U型曲线关系，公司规模、资产价值、盈利能力、偿债能力和绩效一期时滞均正向激励当期研发绩效。经测算，整体平衡点接近研发投入的86.89%分位数水平，而疫情期平衡点显著低于疫情后的这一差异归因于疫情冲击与行业修复的双重机制。因此，对于未达到平衡点的上市公司，可通过加大研发投入实现绩效激励作用；对于已达到平衡点的上市公司，要根据实际情况和市场需求合理配置研发资源，密切关注政策变化和市场动态等外部环境影响，合理调整研发方向和策略，避免进入边际效益递减陷阱。Research and development investment is the core driving force for the industry to enhance profitability, form core competitive advantages, and increase performance allocation quotas. This article takes the balanced panel data of 30 pharmaceutical manufacturing listed companies from 2020 to 2024 as the research sample, and uses threshold regression model, fixed effects model, and quantile regression model to conduct empirical research. It is found that there is a single threshold value or relative equilibrium point for the R&D investment of pharmaceutical manufacturing listed companies to exert performance incentives. A significant inverted U-shaped curve emerges between R&D investment and financial performance. Factors such as company size, asset value, profitability, debt repayment ability, and one-period lagged performance all positively stimulate current R&D performance. According to calculations, the overall equilibrium point is close to the 86.89% percentile level of R&D investment, while the significant difference in equilibrium point during the epidemic period compared to after the epidemic is attributed to the dual mechanism of epidemic impact and industry recovery. Consequently, for listed companies that have not reached the equilibrium point, performance incentives can be achieved by increasing research and development investment. For listed companies that have reached the equilibrium point, it is necessary to allocate R&D resources reasonably according to the actual situation and market demand, closely monitor external environmental influences such as policy changes and market dynamics, adjust R&D directions and strategies reasonably, and avoid entering the trap of diminishing marginal benefits.