Identifying the Latest Displacement and Long-Term Strong Earthquake Activity of the Haiyuan Fault Using High-Precision UAV Data, NE Tibetan Plateau

Strong earthquake activity along fault zones can lead to the displacement of geomorphic units such as gullies and terraces while preserving earthquake event data through changes in sedimentary records near faults. The quantitative analysis of these characteristics facilitates the reconstruction of significant earthquake activity history along the fault zone. Recent advancements in acquisition technology for high-precision and high-resolution topographic data have enabled more precise identification of displacements caused by fault activity, allowing for a quantitative assessment of the characteristics of strong earthquakes on faults. The 1920 Haiyuan earthquake, which occurred on the Haiyuan fault in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, resulted in a surface rupture zone extending nearly 240 km. Although clear traces of surface rupture have been well preserved along the fault, debate regarding the maximum displacement is ongoing. In this study, we focused on two typical offset geomorphic sites along the middle segment of the Haiyuan fault that were previously identified as having experienced the maximum displacement during the Haiyuan earthquake. High-precision geomorphologic images of the two sites were obtained through unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys, which were combined with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data along the fault zone. Our findings revealed that the maximum horizontal displacement of the Haiyuan earthquake at the Shikaguan site was approximately 5 m, whereas, at the Tangjiapo site, it was approximately 6 m. A cumulative offset probability distribution (COPD) analysis of high-density fault displacement measurements along the ruptures indicated that the smallest offset clusters on either side of the Ganyanchi Basin were 4.5 and 5.1 m long. This analysis further indicated that the average horizontal displacements of the Haiyuan earthquake were approximately 4–6 m. Further examination of multiple gullies and geomorphic unit displacements at the Shikatougou site, along with a detailed COPD analysis of dense displacement measurements within a specified range on both sides, demonstrated that the cumulative displacement within 30 m of this section of the Haiyuan fault exhibited at least five distinct displacement clusters. These dates may represent the results of five strong earthquake events in this fault segment over the past 10,000–13,000 years. The estimated magnitude, derived from the relationship between displacement and magnitude, ranged from Mw 7.4 to 7.6, with an uneven recurrence interval of approximately 2500–3200 years.