The Potential Impact of Sotatercept on Long-Term Disability in Commercially Insured Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in the United States: An Exercise in Actuarial Modeling

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a progressive disease commonly leading to functional impairment that can impact the ability to work. In the US, disabled workers often qualify for employer-sponsored long-term disability (LTD) benefits and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). We used actuarial techniques to model scenarios of disability costs associated with PAH, with and without treatment with sotatercept, a first-in-class therapy that slowed PAH disease progression in clinical trials. Annual disability costs were measured as the net present value of lifetime benefits per claimant with PAH and multiplied by the number of new disability insurance claimants with PAH nationwide each year. We estimated that sotatercept therapy would result in disability benefit costs savings in the US ranging from $86.9 to $245.5 million per year or 32-90% of current costs for LTD and SSDI benefits associated with PAH. Our findings suggest that therapies that potentially prevent disability and enable disabled patients to return to work can help reduce disability costs.