The Analysis and Prediction Concerning The Impact of International Incidents on The Gold Price

Since 2020, the world has faced a series of significant events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the rise of right-wing politics in Europe, and the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. These events have contributed to a period of global uncertainty, which is reflected in the price of gold, often seen as a safe haven during times of crisis. Beginning in early 2024, both international and domestic gold prices surged, with domestic gold prices increasing by 40%. This study compiles gold price data from 1984 onward, along with a selection of representative international incidents during this period. Using Students t-test and the 3-sigma rule, abnormal fluctuations in the data were identified. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was then applied to classify the international incidents. The relationship between the severity of international incidents and abnormal fluctuations in gold prices was explored, and the correlation coefficient between these variables was calculated, revealing a positive correlation. Based on the findings, potential future impacts of international incidents on gold price fluctuations are predicted.