Modeling the Transmission Dynamic of Mpox Virus With Vertical Transmission

ABSTRACT As a virus transmitted mostly through contact of animal hosts and sex, the global outbreak of Mpox from 2022 to 2023 was sudden and unexpected. In this work, we focus on the difference between female and male Mpox patients and develop a two‐group SEIR model to explore the dynamic of Mpox virus in those countries without animal hosts. In analysis of our model, we calculate the disease‐free equilibrium (DFE) and prove its stability: globally asymptotically stable if and unstable if . Then, we prove the existence of endemic equilibrium (EE) and numerically discuss the complex dynamics of System (2), which illustrates that for , EE is locally asymptotically stable when , while for relatively close to , there occurs two Hopf bifurcations when . The data we use for the numerical simulation is from the United States, and it provides with a suggestion that the government should pay more attention on the male.