Analysis and forecasting of key factors in the formation of gross trade value added: The Nizhny Novgorod Oblast case study

Subject. This article considers the key factors of the formation of gross trade added value. Objectives. The article aims to construct econometric models for gross value added by type of economic activity Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, and the factors determining its changes, and provide short- and medium-term forecasts for the indicators under study. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of mathematical statistics and econometrics. Results. The article describes the key factors influencing the gross trade value added in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. The article finds that the value of fixed assets depends on investments in fixed assets with a two-year lag and fictitious variables describing the revaluation of the cadastral value of real estate. Conclusions. Forecasts show a steady increase in the gross trade value added in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast under difficult external conditions even, which indicates the flexibility and adaptability of this area. For further development, it is important for enterprises to invest in the modernization of fixed assets and cost optimization. Government support for such investments will contribute to the further economic growth of the region.