An assessment of the impact of low-fertility policies on fertility rates and identification of region-specific factors: an analysis using prefectural data in Japan

Abstract This study aims to examine the impact of low-fertility policies on fertility rates, particularly focusing on region-specific factors in Japan, such as local culture and values. Identifying these region-specific factors and understanding their impact on fertility rates is crucial for developing effective policy interventions. Therefore, upon assessing the impact of each low-fertility policy on fertility rates in Japan, this study seeks to elucidate region-specific factors affecting the rates and their relationship with these policies respectively, and deriving policy implications accordingly. First, a regression analysis was conducted using panel data from prefectures in Japan at two different timepoints, with the total fertility rate as the dependent variable. After controlling for the unmarried rate, the study examines the effects of various low-fertility policy variables on fertility rates, including the number of children on waiting lists, paternal childcare leave status, education expenses, rent levels and gender equality. Additionally, the study derives individual effects from the estimation results of the panel data analysis. It then selects variables likely to act as region-specific factors and assesses these factors and their impact on fertility rates based on the strength of correlations between individual effects and their respective variables. Furthermore, social well-being was included, derived from using some of those variables, along with its interaction terms with low-fertility policy variables in the estimation model, and examining the effects of these variables on fertility rates.