The return of the Caracal Caracal caracal: 56 Years of Population Changes in Israel

• A 56-year study reveals cyclical population trends in caracal across Israel, showing both declines and recoveries. • Caracal populations have significantly declined in highly urbanized regions, emphasizing the impact of local pressures. • Species distribution modeling shows caracals prefer low-elevation grasslands, semi-arid areas, and agricultural mosaics, while avoiding urban zones. • Mixed habitat use enhances caracal resilience, highlighting the importance of conserving heterogeneous landscapes. • The study offers a long-term, spatially integrated framework to guide mesopredator conservation strategies in dynamic ecosystems. Long-term studies of mesopredator populations are essential for understanding the factors driving their demographic changes and developing evidence-based conservation strategies in dynamic landscapes. Here, we present a 56-year assessment of caracal population trends in Israel. This extended period was chosen to capture long-term trends and to account for potential cyclical patterns in the population dynamics, integrating historical records with statistical modeling to examine temporal and geographical variability in abundance and habitat use. Our results reveal distinct population fluctuations, including periods of increase in the 1970s, a subsequent decline during the 1980s and 1990s, and a marked resurgence over the last two decades. However, regionally focused analyses indicate a significant long-term decline in highly urbanized areas such as Judea, suggesting that local pressures can affect abundance trends over wide spatial domains. Species distribution modeling indicates that caracals predominantly occupy areas below 1000 m elevation, favoring grasslands, semi-arid zones, and mosaics of cultivated fields while generally avoiding urban environments. Their preference for mixed habitats not only enhances the species’ resilience but also underscores their adaptability to changing landscapes. The episodes of population decline, while concerning, also highlight the potential for recovery and the importance of conservation efforts in maintaining these mixed habitats. Our findings underscore the importance of conserving heterogeneous habitats that can sustain caracals in the face of ongoing environmental variability. By integrating long-term population analyses with spatial modeling, this study provides a robust framework for refining protection strategies that address the species’ dynamic ecological requirements. This knowledge empowers us to make informed decisions and contribute valuable insights for broader mesopredator conservation in rapidly changing ecosystems.